Member

I said I would talk about the effect of the measures, which is that very large numbers of people will be released from prison. The figures are alarming; we could see over 40,000 people released early. We could see thousands of violent offenders released. I appreciate that they were released on licence and that measures can be taken through the Probation Service and the police to try to limit the harm they might do, but the reality is that there has already been a 36% increase in recalls. My estimation—I would go as far as to call it a prediction—is that that number will rise if we pass the Bill. I think recalls will soar and the police and Probation Service will struggle to deal with that. As my hon. Friend the shadow Minister predicted, I would not be surprised if the Minister comes back to the House with an amendment to this legislation to deal with that emergency, for that is what it will become. It will be a profound emergency for people affected by those who are released and commit crime again, because they will not all be petty offences.