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Lord Livermore (Lab)

Speaking in the House of Lords on 13 October 2025

Debate

School Fees: VAT

Contribution

I am grateful to the noble Lord for his question—I think the short answer is no. We estimated that the introduction of VAT was likely to lead to around 35,000 more pupils in the state sector over the course of this Parliament. This is fewer than 0.5% of all pupils currently in the state sector and will take place gradually over this Parliament. This assessment was certified by the OBR at the time, and we remain extremely confident in it. Pupil movements so far are absolutely in line with this estimate and are in line with trends over the past 20 years. They represent, as I say, a very small proportion of the private school population. It should be noted that not all pupil movements are the result of this policy; they can happen for a large variety of reasons and will reflect wider demographic trends.

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