Contribution
My Lords, it is a privilege to open this debate on the spring forecast and the Second Reading of the finance Bill. I very much look forward to the valedictory speech from the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso.
On taking office, this Government inherited three major crises: a crisis in the public finances, a crisis in our public services and a crisis in the cost of living. That is why we have repeatedly taken the action necessary to bring stability to the economy. The choices we have made are the responsible ones. The spring forecast showed that the economic plan that we have been driving forward since the election is the right one.
In our first Budget, we took action to fix the foundations of the economy by repairing the £22 billion black hole in the public finances left by the previous Government. At the spending review last summer, we stuck to our non-negotiable fiscal rules, keeping a tight grip on day-to-day spending while investing an additional £120 billion in growth-driving infrastructure and getting debt on a downward path. In the Budget last November, we built greater resilience by doubling the headroom against the stability rule and cutting borrowing as a share of GDP in every year of the forecast.
Our economic plan is built on three pillars: stability in our public finances, investment in our infrastructure and reform to Britain’s economy. Stability is the cornerstone of this plan because it is the single most important precondition for economic growth. That is why we have committed to one fiscal event a year, limiting major policy changes to the Budget, helping to give businesses and households the certainty that they need to plan and to invest.
The forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility, published last month, shows that our plan is working and that we enter this period of global uncertainty with the fundamentals of our economy strong. We have cut inflation, which stands now at 3%—a lower base than at the outset of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. We have prioritised growth to drive up living standards. The OBR forecast showed GDP per head set to grow more than was expected at the Budget, with growth of 5.6% over this Parliament. We have stabilised the public finances, having already reduced the deficit by £20 billion this year from 5.2% to 4.3% of GDP.
These forecasts pre-date the current conflict in the Middle East. The full economic impact of that conflict will depend on its severity and its duration. The movements on energy markets that we have seen are likely to put upward pressure on inflation in the coming months. Our economic approach will be responsive to a changing world and responsible in the national interest. As the Government have demonstrated time and again, we will take the necessary decisions to help families with the cost of living and to protect the public finances.
This Government are delivering the biggest uplift in defence spending since the end of the Cold War. The Chancellor has also approved access for the Ministry of Defence to the special reserve to deploy additional capabilities in the Middle East, meaning that no net additional costs of these operations will be funded by the Ministry of Defence, but instead will be funded by the Treasury.
Last week, following her call with other G7 Finance Ministers, the Chancellor set out her further priorities for international co-operation: for immediate de-escalation and a return to a diplomatic process; guaranteeing the security of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz; supporting a co-ordinated release of collective International Energy Agency oil reserves, the release of which has since helped to stabilise international oil markets; and setting out how the UK will play its part as the global hub of maritime insurance. On Friday, the Chancellor met petrol retailers and energy suppliers to make it clear that the Government would not tolerate any company exploiting the current situation to make excess profits at consumers’ expense.
While we do not yet know how long this conflict will last, it underlines the importance of building a stronger, more secure economy able to withstand whatever instability we may face. The strength of our economy and public finances is possible only because of the Budget last year and the measures contained in the finance Bill before us today.
That Budget had at its heart three pro-growth choices. First, by choosing to maintain economic stability, getting inflation and interest rates down, we helped give businesses the confidence to invest and our economy the room to grow. Secondly, by choosing to reject austerity, we protected £120 billion of additional investment in growth-driving infrastructure. Thirdly, by choosing to back the fast-growing companies of the future, we supported the investment, innovation and economic dynamism that will increase growth in the next decade and beyond. That includes measures in the Bill to make Britain the best place in the world for firms to start, scale and stay. We are doing that by widening eligibility for our enterprise incentives so that scale-ups can attract the talent and the capital that they need. We are expanding the enterprise management incentive so that more companies can offer tax relief share options, and we are re-engineering our enterprise investment and venture capital trust schemes so that they do not back just early-stage ideas but stay with companies as they grow. For all businesses, large and small, we are also maintaining the lowest corporation tax rate in the G7 and the joint most generous capital allowances in the OECD.
In her Mais Lecture today, the Chancellor went further on our growth agenda by setting out how we will deepen our economic relationship with our European partners, how we will back innovation and harness the power of AI, and how we will take the necessary action to build growth on a broad, stable basis right across the UK.
Of course, the pro-growth choices we made in the Budget need to be paid for, and that means asking everyone to make a contribution. The previous Government froze the main income tax thresholds from 2021 to 2028. This finance Bill maintains all income tax and equivalent national insurance thresholds at their current level for a further three years from 2028. I accept that maintaining these thresholds is a decision that will affect working people. The Chancellor and I both said this in 2024 and I will not pretend otherwise now.
However, while we are asking everyone to make a contribution, we are keeping that contribution as low as possible through reforms to our tax system to make it fairer and to ensure that the wealthiest contribute the most. That includes increasing taxes on property, dividend and savings income to narrow the gap between tax paid on work and tax paid on income from assets. Currently, a landlord with an income of £25,000 will pay nearly £1,200 less in tax than their tenant with the same salary because no national insurance is charged on property, dividend or savings income. That is not fair. That is why this finance Bill increases the basic and higher rate of tax on property, savings and dividend income by 2 percentage points, and the additional rate of tax on property and savings income by 2 percentage points. Around two-thirds of the revenue from these increases are expected to come from the top 20% of households.
We are also reforming the tax system to ensure that it keeps pace with a fast-changing economy. This finance Bill increases taxes on online gaming and online betting, while protecting UK horseracing and abolishing bingo duty. It prevents private hire vehicle operators exploiting a tax administration scheme so that everyone pays fairly. We are going further to close the tax gap to ensure that everyone pays the tax that they owe. Reforms contained in this finance Bill will help to collect more unpaid taxes and modernise the tax system to make it easier for taxpayers to get their tax right first time.
We have listened carefully to feedback from the farming community and family businesses, and the Bill raises the threshold for the 100% rate of relief on agricultural property and business property from £1 million to £2.5 million. This means that a couple will now be able to pass on up to £5 million of agricultural or business assets tax free on top of the existing allowances such as the nil-rate band.
Since coming into office, this Government have implemented an economic plan to bring stability to the public finances and to strengthen Britain’s economy for the long term. The spring forecast shows that this plan is the right one, with lower inflation and borrowing, higher living standards and a growing economy. Britain today is in a stronger position to withstand whatever uncertainty comes our way, but that is possible only because of the action we took in the Budget last year and the measures contained in this finance Bill. They are the right choices to protect families and businesses in an uncertain world, and they demonstrate that this Government have the right economic plan for Britain’s future. I beg to move.