Contribution
I would be delighted to talk the hon. Gentleman through that. The preceding Labour Government left this country with a deficit of 10.1%, or £160 billion a year, so clearly we had to get on top of that deficit. It is a simple fact of economic life that if a country is running a large deficit, its debt increases, but by the time of covid, we had largely settled that deficit. For the reasons that I gave a moment ago, of course we added to the debt and the deficit at that point, because we had to intervene to stabilise the economy. However, the inheritance that we received in 2010 was the start of that debt climbing. The hon. Gentleman should acquaint himself with the economic history.
What approach can this Government take in the autumn? They are not going to be saved by growth—that is for the birds. The OBR, the Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund have all downgraded growth, and the Office for National Statistics recently announced that for the second month in a row, we have had an economic contraction.
How else might the Chancellor make the numbers add up? Well, despite Ministers insisting that their commitment to the fiscal rules remains non-negotiable, there are reports of potential changes to the broader fiscal framework, including the early use of the flexibility of a 0.5% of GDP range for the current budget target, which would allow £12 billion to £13 billion of extra borrowing. However, that would be a breach of faith. There are similar reports that Ministers might move to just one OBR forecast a year, to avoid an embarrassing emergency Budget like the one we saw in March. However, that would completely abandon the commitment not to sideline the OBR, so when the Minister comes to the Dispatch Box will he reconfirm that the Government’s commitment to the fiscal rules also applies to the fiscal framework, and that we will continue to have two OBR forecasts per year?
The Government should be looking not for yet more borrowing, but to rein in spending. However, the welfare debacle shows that they are utterly incapable of doing that, so that leaves just taxes. The motion before us today simply asks the Minister to confirm the Chancellor’s commitment not to extend the freeze on tax thresholds. She specifically said in her Budget speech that such a move
“would hurt working people. It would take more money out of their payslips.”—[Official Report, 30 October 2025; Vol. 755, c. 821.]
When the Minister comes to the Dispatch Box, will he confirm that he, too, holds that position? Will he also rule out wealth taxes? We have already seen tens of thousands of people—high net worth individuals—leaving our country. I know that socialists may say, “Good riddance to them—they are wealthy”, but the Adam Smith Institute calculates that the tax forgone as a consequence of their departure is equal to the tax paid by around half a million people on average earnings. The Labour party has no plan to stem that exodus of talent and wealth creation.
Whatever decisions are taken in the autumn, they will be bad ones, and as nervous markets look on, they may prove disastrous. It may even be that this Government take us to a dark place; it is hoped not, but if history is any guide to the future, the lights are surely flashing red. Surely, too, the British people, those hard-working men and women up and down our country—the businesses, the entrepreneurs, the farmers who toil all hours, our charities, our hospices, our veterans, our elderly, and all those who embody the very best of all that our country can be—deserve answers about the promises made to them, and about whether their pay packets, their pensions and their savings are safe. Surely, they deserve better than this wretched, rotten and defunct Labour Government.