Contribution
My Lords, I will speak to Amendment 63. I agree that the impact of Clauses 1 to 8 will be especially felt by these three sectors: hospitality, retail and social care. But, to be frank, I would not stop there; I advocate expanding this impact assessment, not only to small businesses and micro-businesses—noble Lords would expect me to say that—but to all key sectors in the economy. There will be huge employment variations sector by sector, and they need to be analysed and understood. As we keep hearing, one size does not fit all—although the Bill has a different view on that—and we have the issue of “mind the gap”.
Two other industries that certainly deserve such assessments are the creative industries, which we will debate on another day, and the gig economy. Some very disturbing numbers are already coming out of membership surveys from bodies such as the Federation of Small Businesses and the Institute of Chartered Accountants. I will share two bits of data from the ICAEW’s latest quarterly business survey for the first quarter of this year. It says that 53% of its members expect that the Bill will
“reduce their plans to hire permanent staff”,
and that 40% anticipate greater use of outsourcing because of the Bill—that is a very significant number.
What does this mean? It means—it is already happening—that employees will be coming off payroll and going into freelance and self-employed roles. We have an amendment coming up in many days’ time, or probably weeks; I will not read out the names of my noble friends who are behind it, but it is Cross-Bench and Liberal Democrat-sponsored and relates to the establishment of a freelance commissioner office. I think the Government may have very little choice on this, because the demands for the services of that office are going to go up exponentially, partly because of this Bill and also because of the national insurance contributions Bill. I will not repeat all those arguments.
I come to the second unforeseen consequence—although, frankly, these are not unforeseen, are they? They are foreseen. We can actually say with some certainty that the Government are encouraging the offshoring of jobs from the UK. This trend has been going on for decades, but is it really the objective of the Government, particularly for lower-paid and entry-level roles, to see a percentage of those jobs going off to countries such as India, Vietnam, the Philippines, Romania or Moldova? I am not against offshoring, but I think you have to be very careful about being seen to be encouraging it, and I believe the Bill is guilty of that.
On the assessment, which we hope will happen, the area that should be looked at in greatest detail is the impact on part-time jobs. We have heard already about the young graduates and students, but I will speak up also for older workers. Those of us here who sit on the Economic Affairs Committee—I see the noble Lord, Lord Davies, here—will be aware that we are conducting an inquiry on the economics of an ageing society. If the Government are to achieve their noble objective of raising the economic activity rate from 75% to 80% across all age groups, they will have to tackle the 50 to 70 year-old cohort.
In order to get people back into work, not just those who took premature retirement but those who have been on benefits for a long time, we will have to be far more flexible about creating part-time work, and I am afraid that the Bill is likely to deter the creation of part-time roles. So that is another area that I believe the impact assessment should be looking at, which is not just by sector but by type of job.
I am told by my friends in the recruitment industry, if I can call them that, that there is already a shift in hiring from permanent to interim, and that trend started at the beginning of this year and is accelerating. Again, national insurance contributions have pushed employment in that direction and the Bill threatens to do the same.
My final point, talking about assessments, is that HMRC may well want to conduct one to discover that its projected national insurance contribution tax revenues will, as a result of the Bill, take a significant hit as employees start being taken off payroll and moved into self-employed, part-time or even offshored roles.