Lord Skidelsky (CB)

Speaking in the House of Lords on 27 March 2025

Debate

Contribution

My Lords, do the Government believe that we have a shortage or a surplus of labour? The question arises because the OBR has calculated an output gap of 0.5%, closing by 2027, which suggests that we actually have full employment, yet that flies in the face of common sense. We have 1.5 million people, or 4%, unemployed; 8.4 million, or 20%, working part-time; 2.3 million, or 5%, on disability benefit; 3.3 million, or 8%, on incapacity benefit; and 4.2 million, or 10%, drawing sickness benefit. I am not suggesting that they are all available to work—of course that is not true—but some of them are. Can the Minister ask the OBR to make clearer the basis of its calculations of capacity and output gaps? On those depends the whole success of the Government’s economic strategy.

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