Member

HMRC has given numbers, which the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, cited earlier; they are regularly trotted out by Ministers to give the impression that the impact of these changes is rather benign because of the large numbers that will either have no impact or make some gain. However, we have no more granular analysis than these three large numbers. I am fairly sure that the HMRC numbers do not factor in the increases to the national living wage, which, especially for younger workers, will have a very big impact when that uplifts wages, and therefore on the amount of national insurance that will be collected. I am sure that the figure of 250,000 that will be affected is an understatement, but we have no way of telling because we do not know any of the assumptions underlying the numbers that we have been given.