Chris Coghlan

It is a pleasure to speak in this debate as a member of the Treasury Committee. After suffering the highest fall in living standards since records began, the United Kingdom desperately needs economic growth, yet the OBR forecasts that the policies in the Government’s Finance Bill and Budget will have no impact on growth over the next five years. The recessionary impact of the tax rises, combined with a focus on current spending that crowds out the private sector, largely offsets the fiscal stimulus of one of the largest fiscal events in recent decades, and of borrowing an extra £32 billion a year. There are potential upsides to the growth forecasts in the Budget, mainly from the impact of planning reform, but this Budget and Finance Bill are a missed opportunity for growth. That matters, because there are chronic structural problems in the British economy that we must address. Indeed, given that public sector net debt is now approaching 100% of GDP, the Government’s ability to borrow to invest in the future, or to cope with an unforeseen shock, is severely constrained. Many Labour Members have spoken about the importance of public investment, which I agree with, so I would like to address the following points. Since the 2008 financial crash, the UK economy has been hampered by productivity growth collapsing to 0.6% per year—the second worst in the G7. Unless and until we solve the productivity crisis, the UK will not escape its downward economic spiral of higher taxes, an ageing population, ever crumbling public services and ever higher debt. A key cause of that is chronically low public and private investment. In 24 of the last 30 years, the UK has had the lowest total investment of any G7 economy, yet as the OBR testified, under the Budget, public investment will remain flat as a share of GDP, so the Budget is unlikely to help solve the productivity crisis. This is why the OBR is forecasting that for every £1 borrowed by the Government, the economy will grow by only 60p next year, and that these effects will reverse in five years.