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My third point is the black market substitution effect. So long as there is a flourishing alternative market, offering a 20-pack of illicit cigarettes for anywhere between £3.50 and £7, compared with an average of £17 for a legal 20-pack, consumer demand will go in only one direction. People are already switching in huge numbers to buy cheaper, illicit products, which is also resulting in the loss of vital tax revenue to the tune of many billions of pounds a year. It is surely obvious that this trend will only be accelerated if those born after 1 January 2009 can never legally buy cigarettes.