Contribution
I thank noble Lords for their patience. I will resume the opening of group 3, on contribution limits and indexation, and will comment on Amendments 6, 13, 19 and 25 in my name and that of my noble friend Lady Neville-Rolfe. We also have a wide range of other amendments, many of which speak to the same set of concerns. I will not address the other amendments in this group in great detail, therefore, but I want to note that I am glad that the same issue has been largely echoed not only on this side of the Committee but across it.
We have already debated the principle of whether this measure is wise, but even those who are broadly sympathetic to the Government’s intentions ought to look carefully at what will happen if the £2,000 cap is left to stand unindexed year after year. The answer is that the Government will end up taxing people twice: once through the cap itself, and again through the quiet, insidious effects of inflation. The Government have chosen £2,000 as their figure. Let us take them at their word that this is intended to protect those on low and middle incomes while bearing down on very high earners; that is what the Minister has told us, in effect, and we should judge the policy against its stated purpose.
The problem is this: a cap that is not uprated in line with inflation does not stay in the same place. It moves, and in one direction only, pulling more and more people into its reach as wages and prices rise while the threshold stays frozen. We have seen this story before in our tax system. We know precisely how it ends. Fiscal drag, by any other name, is still fiscal drag, and, when it operates on a cap that limits pension saving, it is particularly harmful.
Consider an employee today contributing 5% or 6% of a salary that sits just at or above the threshold. Over three years of even modest inflation before the cap comes into force in 2029, then year after year thereafter, that same real-terms contribution will be clipped a little further each time. The worker has not become richer in any meaningful sense. They have simply been caught by a fixed line in the sand that the Government have chosen not to move. A number of different options set out in this group could mitigate this, such as raising the cap by different amounts or applying a percentage. I would like to hear from the Minister what impact these would have. For now, I believe that our amendment on uprating by CPI is the most realistic, but all have some attraction.
Given the complexities of administration already discussed—and apparently reflected in compliance costs in the years running up to the introduction of this new regressive tax—there may be a case here for providing for sensible indexation from day one. When we reformed salary sacrifice in government, we decided to continue it uncapped for pension purposes for a very good reason: we need to incentivise people to pay into their pensions to improve retirement adequacy and, indeed, to build a habit of saving. Sadly, the Bill goes in the opposite direction.
I appreciate that pensions adequacy will be debated more fully later on in our proceedings, but it is too important not to be addressed at this stage. If an increasing number of people find themselves caught by a cap as they sacrifice what are, in real terms, ever more modest sums through salary sacrifice, the inevitable consequence will be a reduction in retirement saving, affecting, as we have already discussed in Committee, people on modest earnings or, as the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, mentioned, the cohorts over £25,000. Absent any uprating mechanism, the policy will steadily draw in those on lower and middle incomes, penalising individuals, in effect, for doing the responsible thing and saving for their retirement. As we made clear at Second Reading, improving retirement adequacy ought to be a central objective of government policy, not something undermined by it.
We must also be candid about the long-term implications. When people save less today, the shortfall does not disappear; it re-emerges later as a greater pressure on the state and, ultimately, on future taxpayers. I remain unconvinced that the Treasury has properly grappled with these behavioural and fiscal consequences, and the increasing cost of unfunded future retirement liabilities. The Government are taking significant risk with long-term savings behaviour by making even marginal changes, as was noted by my noble friend Baroness Altmann, or the expected behavioural changes by employees and employers noted by the OBR. I look forward to the contributions from other noble Lords with amendments in this group and the response from the Minister. I beg to move.