James Murray

I am going to make some progress, because I have given way quite a lot so far. Ahead of this policy being implemented, the Government have carefully considered the impact that these changes will have on pupils and their families across both the state and private sectors, as well as the impact they will have on state and private schools. The Government’s costing of these policies is currently being scrutinised by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility. The Chancellor will confirm our approach to these measures at the Budget, when we will set out our assessment of the expected impacts of this change in the normal way. We recognise that, as hon. Members have said, these changes may lead to some pupils moving into the state education sector. While the impact of this policy is being fully considered, we know that projections by the Institute for Fiscal Studies indicate that the number of pupils who may switch schools as a result of these changes is likely to represent a very small proportion of overall pupil numbers in the state sector—less than 0.5%—with any displacement expected to take place over several years.