Baroness Stedman-Scott (Con)

I appreciate the noble Lord’s intervention. I will read Hansard. We will write to the noble Lord and start some correspondence on that issue. I appreciate the points made by the noble Lord. Everybody knows that he knows what he is talking about and that he is well versed in pensions legislation. If he is happy for me to do so, I will pick that point up with my colleagues. I turn to the draft Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026. The shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Helen Whately, has rightly led calls for the Government to move more quickly and clearly in setting out their plans for welfare reform. Sickness and disability benefits alone are forecast to cost the taxpayer £100 billion by 2030. The shadow work and pensions team has consistently argued that the Government are failing to confront the structural drivers behind rising welfare expenditure. Delays in doing so carry a cost not only to the public finances but in missed opportunities to redirect spending towards other pressing government priorities. It is extraordinary that the Timms review has only just agreed the names of the committee members appointed for a review that Stephen Timms is leading into sickness benefits, including with group members representing the disabled. The work has not yet begun. It is nearly two years after the general election, so can the Minister confirm that his committee is on track to give an interim review this spring? Can she also confirm that it will indeed be 2027 before his committee reports and that, by then, no progress will have been made in this Parliament, allowing for likely legislation following a government response? These concerns sit alongside the wider economic impact of Labour’s jobs tax. The Autumn Budget 2024, in particular the increase in employer national insurance contributions, has been associated with the loss of an estimated 50,000 full-time equivalent jobs. This has implications for not only employment levels but the long-term health of the National Insurance Fund. The difficulty with this draft order is one not purely of substance but of process. The instrument uprates pensions and working-age benefits together, leaving no scope to consider the appropriateness of each element independently or to debate the Government’s policy intentions for each in detail. Rather than dwell further on the procedural constraint, it is worth noting that the issues raised by this uprating instrument sit alongside the Government’s announcement yesterday on universal credit reform and the legislation now laid before Parliament. Taken together, they speak to the direction of travel in welfare policy and the assumptions underpinning the current uplift. The Government argue that these reforms are intended to rebalance the benefits system, to address perverse incentives and to support more people into work. We are told that the current gap between health-related universal credit payments and the standard allowance discourages labour market participation, and that narrowing this gap for new claimants is necessary to restore fairness and sustainability. I therefore have a number of questions for the Minister. First, what assessment has been made of the behavioural impact of introducing a significantly lower health element for new claimants? Secondly, although existing claimants and those with severe or lifelong conditions are protected, how confident are the Government that the criteria used to determine severity are sufficiently robust, consistent and fair across the system? Thirdly, the Government have announced £3.5 billion in employment support alongside the expansion of pathways to work advisers. How will success be measured? Will outcomes be judged by sustained employment, earnings progression or reductions in case loads, and over what period? Finally, the Government expect these reforms to deliver savings of £950 million by 2030-31. Do those projections assume stable labour market conditions? What sensitivity analysis has been undertaken should employer demand weaken further? I hope that the Minister sees the link and will be happy to answer these questions.