Member

The second part of the test relates to the six-month prognosis. We have heard at length about the difficulties of prognosis. The noble Lord, Lord Stevens, referred last week to the study of over 98,000 prognoses which found that the accuracy of prognoses in the several weeks or months range dropped to 32%. That means that 68% of patients receive an incorrect prognosis in that range, and they may find themselves qualifying and choose to die, thinking that this is what is going to happen to them anyway, when they could have lived so much longer and their families and friends could have benefited from them continuing to live. As Murray and Etkind, writing in the BMJ, said: