Baroness Davidson of Lundin Links (Con)

My Lords, the Scottish Fiscal Commission has forecast that over a million Scottish adults will be in receipt of disability payments by 2031 under the new Scottish social security system—that is over a fifth of the projected population. The divergence from Barnett consequentials in just this area is forecasted to be £1.2 billion, which will come, as the Minister says, either from spending cuts or rises in taxation—taxation rates already being the highest in the UK, reaching 48%. To help the Scottish Government balance the books and to give some relief to the Scottish taxpayer, I ask the Minister: what, if any, analysis has been done to assess the varying disability rates across the different parts of the UK, and what health interventions have proven successful in lowering those rates?