Contribution
It is a pleasure to serve under your chairship, Mrs Barker. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, there were many who argued that our future must involve aligning with the USA—a stable and reliable partner that shared our values—and those who thought that the days of Russian aggression were over. Now we are in the world of Trump and war in Europe. The US is waging its own war that is hurting all our wallets, and Brexit has made the UK economy smaller.
The world in which we voted in 2016 has changed, and we must make decisions based on the world as it is. But even in 2016, we were promised that voting for Brexit would usher in an economic boom, open the funding floodgates for our NHS and other cash-strapped services, and put an end to immigration. The then Prime Minister hoped that the referendum would settle the issue of EU membership for a generation, yet here we are, 10 years on, still debating this very subject at the public’s request. Let us look at the impact that Brexit has had on the country—and on constituencies such as my own, Esher and Walton—on its own terms, as it was sold to us.
On the economy, one recent publication argued that:
“We left the European Union without the economic plan that should have gone with it.”
That would have been a damning indictment coming from my side of the argument, but it came from the right hon. Member for North West Essex (Mrs Badenoch), the leader of the party that delivered Brexit. By ripping us out of the single market and customs union, the Conservatives blew an enormous hole in the UK economy, costing us roughly £90 billion in lost tax revenue in 2025 alone. That is money that could otherwise have been used to lower the tax burden on workers and fund our public services.
The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that Brexit
“will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU”,
and that
“Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run”.
Brexit has stifled investment and job creation. It is handicapping our economy and failing British businesses and workers. The funding windfall for our NHS and other public services has not materialised; we would have more money to fund our public services had we not embarked on this failed experiment.
On the question of immigration, which was so central to the Brexiteers’ case for leaving the EU, after Brexit—and under a Government run by the very people who had pushed for Brexit—net migration reached a record level of nearly 1 million people in the year to June 2023. As we have heard, we also left the Dublin agreement.
Brexit has failed on its own terms. I know from the many conversations I have had over the last decade that many of my constituents, the majority of whom voted to remain, foresaw those problems and take no pleasure in being proved right. Brexit has failed on its own terms.
What is the case for the EU, then, as we stand here today? The challenges we face today are not confined to national borders, and our solutions must reflect that. I could point to our strength in numbers in tackling climate change, terrorism and people smugglers, or in regulating the risks from AI and taking on the tech giants. Cross-border problems need cross-border solutions and strength in numbers. The EU is far from perfect, but it represents an important ideal: it is worth working together to find common solutions that benefit all of us.
Secondly, there is the economic case. We recognise that, when it comes to economics, geography matters. The EU is our largest trading partner for a good reason. Trade deals with countries on the other side of the world cannot replace a market of millions of people right here on our doorstep.
Lastly, as the Prime Minister says, let us give the next generation real hope. The last decade has been a difficult one for young people, so let us give them back their ski seasons or their right to tour Europe. I have just come from the Chamber where the Prime Minister talked in positive terms about Europe. It is good, at last, to hear a Labour leader making the case for Europe. It has been a long decade.