John Healey

My right hon. Friend took the decisions required to boost investment, to cut NHS waiting lists and to lift half a million children out of poverty. I also want to thank my outstanding team of Treasury Ministers and officials, and the Office for Budget Responsibility for producing today’s forecasts. Analysts like to speak of economic headwinds, but what we face today are global economic storms, with trade tensions acting as a drag on global growth and Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine approaching now the end of its fifth year. The OBR sets out that the war in the middle east is a key driver affecting its forecasts today. The Government continue to work with our allies to end the conflict and restore shipping through the strait of Hormuz. We did not want this war, and we rejected the calls from the Leader of the Opposition to jump two-footed into it. It is a war that has driven up costs on British families and on British businesses. Inflation, which was due to fall earlier this year to the 2% target, has now risen, driven by higher oil and gas prices. Oil is up from around $70 a barrel to well over $100 and gas prices have nearly tripled since February. For families, that means higher prices at the pump, higher energy bills and higher mortgages. For businesses, it means higher running costs and more expensive business loans. The impact is felt in the public finances, too. Driven by the conflict in the middle east, Government borrowing costs across the G7 are reaching highs not seen for decades. In today’s forecast, the OBR predicts that we will spend £14 billion more on debt interest this year. Those are the storms we face. We cannot wish them away. We must choose the course we steer through them. Fiscal discipline is my first commitment as Chancellor. More than ever, it underwrites every promise the Government make to the British people. In the Budget today, I meet the fiscal rules: the stability rule that day-to-day spending must be covered by tax receipts; and the investment rule that Government debt, defined as public sector net financial liabilities, must be falling as percentage of GDP. This year, for the first time, I must meet those rules in the third year of the forecast, and I do. My plans continue to reduce Government borrowing so that we spend less on debt interest and more on the priorities of the British people. First, the stability rule. In the Budget today, I have chosen to use some of the headroom established last year to absorb the impact of the Iran war to protect the economy and to protect family budgets. My choices in the Budget mean that I have kept the Labour manifesto promise not to raise tax on working people—[Interruption.] I have rejected—[Interruption.]