John Healey

I have also rejected broad-based tax rises or slashing public services, recognising that families and businesses need breathing space. The OBR confirms today that headroom against the stability rule will be £15 billion in 2029-30 before rising to £22 billion in 2030-31. That is what a buffer is for: use it when you need it; rebuild it when you can. Despite the global challenges, the Budget puts us on track to eliminate the current budget deficit and get Britain’s finances into the black within three years. As a Labour Government, last year we cut borrowing to its lowest level in six years, from 5.1% to 4.4% of GDP. I continue that work today. In today’s forecast, borrowing falls to 4.2% this year, 3.4% next year, 2.9% in 2028-29, 2.1% in ’29-30 and 1.8% in ’30-31 and ’31-32. Our debt as a percentage of GDP is 83.2% this year, 83.8% next year and in ’28-29, before falling to 83.1% in ’29-30, 82.3% in ’30-31 and 81.7% in ’31-32. It is because of our Labour decisions and it is because of our Labour plans that the International Monetary Fund has said that the UK now stands out as a country where “action to reduce debt and deficit has been taken decisively”. It projects our UK deficit will be the lowest in the G7 by 2029. The last time the IMF called the UK a standout was when Liz Truss crashed the economy. Her new book says she could have taken the British people to Mars. In reality, what she achieved in government, with help from the shadow Chancellor, was blowing a big black hole in the budget. That is the difference between Labour in government and a Conservative Government before us. During this year of global economic shocks, forecasters predicted that the UK economy would slow down. Those predictions of gloom were about as accurate as the predictions of who would be the Chancellor. [Laughter.] Britain is defying expectations. In the first half of this year, our economy was the fastest growing in the G7, alongside the US. That is testament to the British people—the innovators, the business leaders and the workers on the frontline—and it is testament to the Labour decisions taken over the last two years. Government investment, up; business investment, up; productivity, up; and real wages, up. More since the election than in the first 10 years of the previous Conservative Governments. I will never be complacent, but these are signs of resilience in the UK economy. Three months ago, the Bank of England upgraded its forecasts for UK growth this year, two weeks ago the IMF did the same, and today the OBR has upgraded its forecast to 1.2% this year, followed by 1% next year, 1.6% in 2028, 1.8% in 2029, 1.7% in 2030 and 1.6% in 2031. Yes, there are real challenges ahead, but Britain has beaten the forecasts this year, and with the action I am taking today, I believe Britain can beat the forecasts again. Despite our economy’s resilience, I know that people are under pressure. Too many people feel this country is not working well for them. In particular, households and businesses face challenges from rising energy costs due directly to the conflict in the middle east. In the face of that, what matters is how we respond as a Government, and my choice in the Budget today is to give families and businesses some breathing space now and to begin the radical reform of energy to reduce bills in the future. Last week, my right hon. Friend the Energy Secretary opposed—approved—[Laughter.]