Contribution
Poorer—that is what every household in the country is, including in my constituency of Boston and Skegness. This year alone, real household disposable income is down 0.8%, and every single year between now and the end of this parliamentary term, the average household’s real disposable income is down compared to what the OBR forecast just six months ago. Let us look at the other main economic data: GDP growth for 2027 is forecast to be down once again—from 1.6% to 1%—under this failing Labour Government; and GDP growth per capita is forecast to be down from 1.3% to 0.9%.
And let us just look at what is up, shall we? Government borrowing in this financial year alone is up almost £20 billion compared to what the OBR forecast just six months ago. Over the lifetime of this Budget book for the next five years, Government borrowing will be over £65 billion more than the OBR forecast just six months ago. This is a Government who are completely out of control in terms of spending. That is why the bond markets are applying what is known internationally as “the moron premium” to the United Kingdom under this Labour Government.
Credit where credit is due, this Chancellor does know where the real problems are and he has tried to do a little bit. He understands that there is a crisis with energy bills, which are now forecast to go up by an extra £466 per household in January, and then by another £200 per household in April—all because of the madness of net zero and the rush to renewables, which is happening as we speak. Every single day, NESO is having to tweak and twiddle the dials and add balancing costs to the tune of some £50 million. That is ten times what it was just a few years ago. Next year, it will cost £200 per household for the balancing costs on the grid alone. This is completely out of control. The Chancellor has shuffled the cards in the pack. He has moved a bit from bills to general taxation, but he has not dealt with the real crux of the crisis, which is that the rush to renewables is driving up all our household energy bills at a catastrophically high rate.
Now, I am constructive sort of guy, so I want to give credit where credit is due, so let me say that the Government have done the right thing in approving Jackdaw—but they need to go further. Ministers know in their heart of hearts that they need to approve the oilfield at Rosebank—the Prime Minister was tempted to confirm it at question time today—and grant many more licences in the North sea, because that is our energy treasure; that is where the jobs are and where the growth is. This Government are completely failing on growth. The energy crisis is getting worse, and everybody needs to understand that. If we use our energy treasure, the bills will come down.
If we look at property and housing—again, credit where credit is due—the Chancellor has eased regulations to try to build more homes on brownfield sites. I think he might have read the teal paper I released in September on how to reduce the cost of construction and get more things built. He is right to remove the need for biodiversity requirements on brownfield sites, but there is so much more to do to reduce the construction cost of the new homes that I think we all agree we need to build. There is a £15,000 to £20,000 increase in the cost of homes because of unnecessary regulations, but again the Chancellor has not grasped the real opportunities to go for it and reduce the cost of building. That is what we need. We all agree that we need more affordable social housing, but to do that we have to reduce and remove unnecessary restrictions and the delays in getting planning consents.
We now know that the Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government has given up on her 1.5 million target. In reality, we will be lucky to get to half that number—750,000 homes instead of 1.5 million. These are the lost opportunities from a Government obsessed with regulation, obsessed with process and obsessed with bureaucracy. They cannot do the right thing to deregulate and get some growth.