Lord Livermore (Lab)

As I said at the outset, of course UK markets are affected by global developments but it is a long-standing convention that the Government, as an issuer in gilt markets, do not comment on specific market moves. The noble Lord will be aware that the full economic impact of the conflict will depend on its severity and duration, but we enter this period of uncertainty with the fundamentals of our economy strong. The spring forecast showed that this year borrowing falls by almost 1 percentage point to its lowest level for six years, 4.3%. That is the largest fall in the deficit since 2016. Borrowing as a share of GDP will then fall in every year of the forecast, from 4.3% in 2025 to 1.6% in 2030. Borrowing will fall more than in any other G7 economy. This year, for the first time since 2004, we will be borrowing less than the rest of the G7 on average. The noble Lord asked about welfare. It is right to point out that in the last five years of the previous Government, spending on welfare increased by £88 billion. No one believes that the system we inherited is working: it abandoned too many people to a life on benefits, it wrote off too many people as too sick to work and it condemned too many children to be too poor to eat. That is exactly why we are reforming the welfare system.