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Lord Sentamu (CB)

Speaking in the House of Lords on 1 December 2025

Debate

OBR Forecasts

Contribution

My Lords, I am very grateful to get a copy of the Chief Secretary to the Treasury’s Statement. He paints a chronology of events and how they happened, regardless of any speculation about this. For me, what is important is that he says that the Chancellor “was clear on 4 November that a lower productivity forecast would mean lower tax receipts. The OBR confirmed at the Budget that tax receipts are £16 billion lower as a result of the reduced productivity forecast”, and that the Chancellor said at the last Budget that the decisions the Government took on welfare would have to be paid for in this Budget, which she has done, although that will not happen until 2029-30. What will the Government do not to be bounced into the decisions they took on welfare, which then created difficulties for the Chancellor? Secondly, the OBR’s report has revealed that it is quite possible that other Chancellors faced the same kind of leakage. The OBR has been in place for 15 years, during which all those Chancellors faced the same, especially Kwasi Kwarteng.

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