Health and Disability Benefits: Spending Estimate
Monday, 1 September 2025
Contributions
John Lamont (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk) (Con)Conservative
4. What estimate she has made of the level of spending on health and disability benefits by 2030.
The Minister for Social Security and Disability (Sir Stephen Timms)Labour
The Office for Budget Responsibility forecast in March that incapacity and disability benefits spending would be £90.7 billion in 2029-30. That figure will be updated at the Budget. Better employment support and removing perverse work incentives in universal credit are the key to getting more people into work.
Just two months ago, the Secretary of State was left humiliated after being forced to significantly water down her botched welfare Bill. If the Government had pressed ahead with the Bill as originally drafted, how much less would taxpayers be spending on benefits by 2030?
As I have said, the OBR will update its forecast at the time of the Budget. We inherited a terrible situation, with record numbers of economically inactive people. Economic inactivity is down since the election, and employment is up. Those developments have been encouraging, but our reforms will go much further. The £3.8 billion that we are investing in employment support for people out of work on health and disability grounds—the biggest package ever—will be key.
Peter Prinsley (Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket) (Lab)Labour
Does the Minister agree that we must invest in community mental health services if we are to reduce spending on mental health disability?
I very much welcome the NHS 10-year plan published by our right hon. Friend the Health Secretary, which gives a new priority and commitment to mental health support. I agree with my hon. Friend that that is an important part of tackling the problems that we need to resolve.
Mr SpeakerSpeaker
I call the shadow Minister.
Danny Kruger (East Wiltshire) (Con)Reform UK
It is good to see the Minister back after the break, but I am sorry to hear that there are still no plans to reduce spending on personal independence payments. He has said that he is collaborating with people who would not be working with him on his review if there were to be any reductions in the levels of benefit or eligibility. Given that veto on cuts to PIP, I implore him again to consider the benefits to which PIP is a gateway, such as Motability, disability premiums, council tax discounts and blue badges. Will he promise at least that those entitlements could come down?
We have made it clear that we will co-produce our review of the PIP assessment with disabled people and representatives of disability organisations. The review will cover the assessment for the mobility component, which leads on to the Motability scheme, and other entitlements to which PIP is a gateway.
But with no possibility of any of those entitlements coming down or any of the spending being reduced? We have 1.25 million foreign nationals claiming universal credit, most of whom are not in employment. I hope that the Minister does not plan to co-produce his plans with foreign nationals—although, knowing Labour lawyers, I expect they will say that the European convention on human rights demands that they do just that. Does he think that subsidising more and more foreign nationals is what the British social security system is for? If not, will he restrict sickness benefits to British nationals only, as we have argued for?
It is crucial that we have a fair system. We are reviewing universal credit at the moment, considering problems such as the five-week wait that was inserted when universal credit was introduced and changes to ensure that universal credit effectively tackles poverty and does the job that we need it to do. Fairness will be at the heart of the system.
Source: UK Parliament Hansard API. Debate ID: 4978342.
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