Welfare Budget
Monday, 12 October 2026
Contributions
John Lamont (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk) (Con)Conservative
4. What estimate he has made of what the total welfare budget will be at the end of this Parliament.
The Minister for Social Security and Disability (Sir Stephen Timms)Labour
In March, the Office for Budget Responsibility published its official forecast, predicting that at the end of the current Parliament, in 2029-30, UK welfare spending will be about £390 billion. The OBR will update that forecast in the Budget, which will take place on Wednesday fortnight.
The Minister has just confirmed that the benefits bill will continue to grow. He also seems to have confirmed the Prime Minister’s position that national security “cannot come at the expense of social security.” —[ Official Report , 9 September 2026; Vol. 790, c. 1036.] Is that correct?
The hon. Member will be relieved to know that spending on working-age adults’ and children’s welfare is forecast to be 4.9% of GDP at the end of the current Parliament, as it is now. Overall welfare spending is forecast to rise by less than half as much in this Parliament as in the last, by just over 0.3 percentage points by 2030-31 compared with 0.7 percentage points in the last Parliament. This Government are putting right the problems that they inherited.
Deirdre Costigan (Ealing Southall) (Lab)Labour
According to a recent report from the Good Growth Foundation, 50% of disability claimants would swap up to £1,000 of benefits for help such as employment support, therapy and physical aids. Does the Minister agree that giving disabled people tailored support could both reduce the welfare bill and stop those who want to work being written off by the system?
I do agree with my hon. Friend, and, as she has said, we inherited a system that wrote people off. We are pleased with the early results emerging from our Connect to Work programme, which is providing exactly that kind of tailored support for disabled people and others faced with complex barriers to work. We recently published the second set of quarterly outcome statistics, and the news is very encouraging.
Mr SpeakerSpeaker
I call the shadow Minister.
Joe Robertson (Isle of Wight East) (Con)Conservative
The number of children between the ages of six and 11 with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder has grown sixfold, which means that in the years ahead there will be a surge in the number of applications for personal independence payment as children become adults. Even the Secretary of State accepts that owing to the growing number of children receiving disability living allowance, most will be transferred to PIP. Does the Minister agree that it is time to end a cash payments benefit system for people with more minor conditions, and ensure that those with genuine needs receive the therapeutic support that will enable them to learn, work and contribute to the economy?
The hon. Gentleman will have seen Professor Peter Fonagy’s recent report about the incidence of ADHD, autism and other conditions. He will also know that I am co-chairing a review of PIP which is looking into how we can ensure that the system meets the very real needs of many disabled people, and that the benefit is on a sustainable financial footing for the future. The report of my review will be published before the end of the year.
Source: UK Parliament Hansard API. Debate ID: 5413427.