Answer from Hansard

The Minister for Employment (Alison McGovern)

The introduction of universal credit and the policy choices of the last Conservative Government seem to have had some effect on people’s propensity to be in work. In January, the Department for Work and Pensions published data showing that of the increase in the incapacity benefits caseload since the 2018 universal credit roll-out, 30% of the rise in claims could be explained by foreseeable demographic change and the effect of the structural alterations to the benefit. That leaves 70% of the increase that we do not have data to explain, but the Office for Budget Responsibility and others have drawn attention to the structure of social security and the changes over the past decade. On publishing the analysis I just mentioned, I told the House that the previous Conservative Government took decisions on social security that “segregated people away from work and forgot about them.” —[ Official Report , 29 January 2025; Vol. 761, c. 366.] I stand by those comments.