Written Question·Treasury·UIN 63833

Tobacco: Excise Duties

Tabled: 30 June 2025

Answered: 7 July 2025

Question

James McMurdock

Independent — South Basildon and East Thurrock

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what assessment HMRC has made of the potential merits of using alternative data sources on smoking incidence to calculate tobacco tax estimates.

Answer

James Murray

The tobacco duty forecast starts by generating an in-year estimate for receipts in the current year based on the year-to-date performance of receipts. Future tobacco duty receipts are then forecast from that starting point based on inflation (CPI and RPI)...

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