Contribution
My Lords, I support Amendment 28, which has been so well moved by my noble friend Lord Hunt of Wirral. My main problem with the statutory sick pay clauses in this Bill is that the Government are proceeding without a reliable evidence base. The Government do not collect data on sick leave taken by employees. Instead, they have relied on some modelling by the Department for Work and Pensions, and that modelling in turn rests on some surveys that are carried out by the DWP. Those surveys have some problems, which the DWP itself owns up to, in terms of statistical quality. The Office for National Statistics also published some data on sickness absence. These data are labelled “statistics in the course of development”, and we all know that the ONS currently has major problems with its labour market statistics.
Nevertheless, the Government have used these data and made some challengeable assumptions of their own, such as that there will be no increase in sickness days taken off if the changes in Clauses 10 to 14 go ahead. They have come up with an additional cost to business of £420 million, which they then calculate as £15 per employee. I do not think that £15 passes the common-sense test. It implies that employers will bear the cost of not much more than an extra half a day of statutory sick pay at the rate that is specified in the Bill.
Part of the problem is that the Government’s calculations average those costs over 24 million employees, which is roughly the size of the whole private sector workforce. Within that, nearly a half of employees are employed in large businesses, many of which have their own sick pay arrangements and do not rely on the statutory sick pay arrangements that my local friend Lord Hunt outlined. I tried to find the complete set of costs for small and micro businesses. It looks as if the costs for the smaller end of the scale of businesses are roughly double the amount per employee, but it is very difficult to tie it down, because the dataset is incomplete—certainly the one that is available in public. As my noble friend has already pointed out, the Government’s own assessment has owned up to the fact that these costs will disproportionately bear on small and micro businesses.
Even if we double the £15 per employee to £30, I am not sure that even that is a realistic estimate of the costs that will fall on individual businesses, because it amounts to just a bit over a day of statutory sick pay at the new rate in the Bill. That does not seem to me to make any sense at all. The Government should have done proper studies of current sickness patterns and costs for the various businesses that are affected by these clauses before going ahead. In particular, I believe that the costs to small and micro businesses should have been evaluated before the clauses were proceeded with. The only thing that we know for sure about these clauses is that the impact on small and micro businesses will be disproportionately large.
However, I recognise that the Government would probably have gone ahead with these provisions even if they had gold-standard data and analysis, and even if that analysis showed that the cost was 10 times the amount that the Government currently estimate. That is the reason I support my noble friend’s Amendment 28, with a one-day waiting period and a qualifying threshold of two days, which would go some way towards reducing the impact on smaller firms. Survey data shows that nearly 60% of sickness absences are for one or two days. The small change that my noble friend’s amendment seeks could have a major impact on businesses and the bureaucratic burdens that they would have to bear.
I support Amendment 30, which would reintroduce a statutory sick pay scheme. I would have confined it to small and micro businesses, because that is where the greatest harm is, but, in this uncertain economic environment, with costs being piled on businesses in all directions, businesses deserve protection from the Government’s policies. For that reason, I support Amendment 30.