Lord Jay of Ewelme (CB)

My Lords, it is a pleasure as always to follow the noble Lord, Lord Empey. I join others first of all in congratulating the noble Baroness, Lady Anderson, and the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, on their appointments. As others have said, and it is a view I share, the world is more uncertain and dangerous now certainly than at any time I can remember: the war in Ukraine, the war in Gaza, the simmering tension in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah as a proxy for Iran, the appalling conflict in Sudan—alas, often almost ignored—and the constant and at times resurgent struggle between democracy and, in Russia and China, autocracy. Other contributors to this debate have spoken and will speak about those dangers. I will concentrate on the role the United Kingdom can play, with others, in responding to and confronting them. We have, in our Armed Forces, our Diplomatic Service, our experience and our global vision, huge assets, but there is little we can do on our own. We need to exert and increase our influence and effect by working with and through others. That is easy to say, but much harder to do. We have a close but sometimes tense relationship with the United States. Any attempt to foretell what might happen in November is unwise, but if next January we have another Trump presidency, the tensions will almost certainly increase, as will the unpredictability. At the least, we may see a return to that streak of isolationism that has characterised American policy at times in the past. The implications are hard to predict, but they may well be serious for the war in Ukraine, and indeed for NATO and the European Union. In these circumstances, I hope the Government will argue powerfully for the United States to remain a key NATO partner, and urge other NATO partners to reach or exceed the 2% spending target. By all means, let us consider exactly what 2% or 2.5% means, but let us increase rather than decrease it. The planned defence review is sensible, and I wish the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, well, but it is the results that stem from it that really matter. Global uncertainty today, and uncertainty in the United States, shows clearly the need to rebuild our relationship with the European Union—not inside it, but alongside it. Again, that is easier said than done. There are, not for the first time, strains within the EU, and they will not give us something for nothing. But it is strongly in our own interests to work with the EU on foreign and security policy, perhaps through a more structured relationship—provided, of course, that it is not too bureaucratic and is consistent with NATO. I hope that will lead to a more constructive relationship with the EU on other issues too. I hope too that the Government will contribute all they can to the United Nations, not only in New York but through other UN organisations, including on development aid and humanitarian assistance. It is easy to deride the UN, but without it the world would be even more dangerous. Finally, I turn to climate change. CHOGM takes place in October this year in Samoa. For many Commonwealth island nations, climate change is not theoretical; it is a matter of survival. COP 29 takes place in Azerbaijan in November this year—not just the latest in a seemingly endless series of meetings, but a chance to show, as at CHOGM, that we really do take climate change seriously, as we must, and will encourage others to do so too. Indeed, as the noble Baroness, Lady Goldie, said in her remarks, the Government have said that they plan to initiate an international “clean power alliance” to accelerate the global energy transition. Perhaps the Minister can say more about this. Taking an active, positive and sustained role in international affairs, working with others, is wholly in line with Britain’s traditions. I wish the Government well.