Lord Young of Cookham (Con)

My Lords, Amendment 314 in my name, supported by my noble friend Lord Moylan, enters the arcane world of Treasury theology—what is and what is not public expenditure. It would require the Secretary of State to report on the impact of the Bill on public finances. This is important because the Government constantly emphasise, rightly, their commitment to the fiscal rules to contain borrowing, build market confidence and reduce upward pressure on interest rates and taxes. One of the fiscal rules is the investment rule: public sector net financial liabilities— sometimes known as PSNFL—which is a broad measure of national debt, must be falling as a share of the total economy by 2029-30. Another is the stability rule: the Government must forecast a surplus on day-to-day spending by 2029-30, meaning that regular public services are funded entirely through tax revenues rather than borrowing. Clearly what GBR spends is public expenditure, but expenditure or borrowing by private companies can be classified as public expenditure if certain qualifications are met. Decisions on that are taken not by the Government but by the Office for National Statistics, and it operates according to international definitions. It does not allow for consideration of political or commercial significance when making its classification decisions; they are essentially statisticians. The Minister may not have read “UK Economic Statistics Sector and Transaction Classifications: The Classification Process”—he may not even have heard of it—but it is relevant to Amendment 314. I shall summarise: the difference between the public and private sectors is determined by where control over the organisation lies rather than by “ownership” or whether the entity is financed from public funds. Control is the ability to determine general corporate policy. I will come on in a moment to the relevance of this to the rolling stock companies where, under the new scenario, GBR will be the principal customer, but there are two relevant instances where attempts by government to circumvent these rules have come unstuck, with consequences for the balance sheet. One that will be familiar to the Minister was Network Rail. Network Rail was set up in 2002 as a private company limited by guarantee, primarily to keep its massive debt off the Government’s balance sheet. By structuring Network Rail as a private company limited by guarantee without shareholders, the Government could then borrow large sums of money for infrastructure upgrades without adding those billions to the official national public debt. However, in 2014, ONS reclassified Network Rail as a central government body in the public sector, and this resulted in roughly £30 billion of debt moving on to the Government’s balance sheet. The Minister will have had direct experience of the consequences of that at Network Rail. We know because we have the Hendy report, which sets out the consequences for Network Rail of this reclassification. Debt was controlled, capital was rationed, assets were sold off and upgrades were postponed. I think the last thing the Minister wants to do is to write another Hendy report, mark 2, when rolling stock is classified as Network Rail is.