Contribution
My Lords, I start by congratulating my noble friend Lord Elliott on securing this debate, his excellent book and all the work he has been doing on jobs. I also congratulate a number of noble Lords who have spoken, especially my noble friend Lady Noakes for her remarks—which I entirely agree with—and my noble friends Lord Young and Lord Harper, who I will return to in a moment.
When thinking about this debate, I happened to read again the lecture that the then shadow Chancellor, now Chancellor, gave at the Mais lecture last year, in which she promised a “fundamental course correction” for the British economy. As the noble Viscount, Lord Chandos, has just said, it is now 379 days since the Chancellor gave her first Budget. So how is this fundamental course correction going? There is, as I am sure we have all read and seen, a growing sense of instability fuelled by speculation, a lack of confidence in the future, and more people worrying about keeping their jobs—and that is just among members of the Cabinet. Out in the country, it is far worse. The Chancellor herself has said that the UK economy feels “stuck”, and today’s growth figures confirm that.
So why are we in this sorry predicament? My noble friends Lord Elliott and Lady Noakes made a number of points as to why this might be, and I will not repeat them in the time I have. At the top of my list is a point that my noble friend Lord Young made: the Chancellor has lost control of spending. Rather than take the right, but tough, decisions to slow down the spiralling cost of welfare—not even to stop its rise—the Chancellor backed down when Labour MPs said no. She did so despite the fact that, as my noble friend Lord Young said, the Prime Minister says the current system is unsustainable. Spending overall has overshot forecasts by over 4% since the spring of 2024. Adding to the pain is the impact of the misguided £25 billion tax rise on employers—referred to by my noble friend Lady Noakes—that is stoking unemployment and making inflation stickier.
The reason the Chancellor may have to raise income tax for the first time in 50 years—50 years—breaking Labour’s promises, is her “fundamental course correction”. But, as my noble friend Lord Harper just said, the Government refuse to accept any blame or any fault for the situation we are in. As he said, they are blaming everyone but themselves. Everyone knows this is nonsense. Last autumn, the Economic Affairs Committee, of which I was then chair, published a report warning that the Government must rebuild the nation’s fiscal buffer, given the global volatility and risks we face. The Chancellor’s reply assured the committee:
“The Budget took the necessary difficult decisions to put the public finances on a sustainable path—setting realistic plans”—
realistic plans—
“for public spending while raising revenue—to create the conditions for growth”.
She clearly thought she had done enough to rebuild our fiscal defences. She said she had built a fiscal buffer, but, in reality, it has turned out to be a wafer.
A tragedy is therefore unfolding in front of us. With an enormous majority, this Government have the ability to take tough decisions to reform our public services and cut welfare, but they have ducked those tough decisions. The Prime Minister and the Chancellor mouth the right sentiments about growth, stability and security, but their actions undermine those aspirations. What do we see 379 days after their cataclysmic Budget? The fundamental course correction the Chancellor has given us is taking us deeper into the mire. There is insecurity, instability and stagnation—the reverse of everything they promised. The fear is that it will require things to get even worse for the Prime Minister, the Chancellor and the noble Lord to do what they promised last year and give us the fundamental course correction this country really badly needs.