Dame Caroline Dinenage

It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Harlow (Chris Vince). I thank him for cantering us through his mother’s career at HMRC—on behalf of the whole House, I thank her for her service, and I ask him to pass on our very best wishes. Madam Deputy Speaker, as a near neighbour to my constituency, I am sure that you will know that the history of Gosport has always been umbilically linked to the fortunes of our armed forces. The town was effectively nationalised by the Royal Navy two or three centuries ago. As the size and structure of our defence base changed, with that, over many decades, went many of the jobs and livelihoods that depended on it. Job density on the Gosport peninsula is almost 50% lower than in the wider south-east region, which is an issue that I have spent 15 years as an MP trying to help drive solutions for. There is nothing more important to an area like mine than maintaining the conditions that give businesses the confidence to invest, employ and grow, but the overwhelming foundation stone for growth, and for the innovation and investment that will solve the productivity puzzle that the UK is facing, is that businesses need to be able to make long-term decisions and plan for the future. Employers in my constituency, both large ones like StandardAero, QinetiQ and STS Defence and the numerous small and growing businesses, need to be able to rely on stable borrowing costs and to know that the cost of materials will not rise unsustainably in order to have the confidence to take on new staff and start apprenticeship programmes. Investors like those who took the plunge and moved to the Solent enterprise zone at Daedalus airfield, creating hundreds of local jobs in the process, need to know that if they put their capital at risk by investing, the Government will not reach in on a whim to take a large slice of any reward. The fact is that employer tax rises put all of that at risk. That is what we have seen since last year’s Budget and why local people are nervous about this year’s Budget too. Tax fulfils two purposes: one, which the Chancellor knows well, is to raise revenue for the Government, but I am not convinced that she has given much thought to the other, which is influencing changes in behaviour. The pessimism and growth downgrades in our economy over the past year have provided hard and fast evidence that changes to the tax regime are at least as powerful at achieving the second goal as the first. Some £40 billion of tax rises very effectively mowed down those green shoots of post-pandemic recovery, but worse than that, they incentivised businesses in my Gosport constituency to make decisions that run in direct contrast to what our area needs. There are fewer employment opportunities and fewer chances for young people to build good-quality careers. I have heard worrying stories about the impact that the employer national insurance rises announced in last year’s Budget of unintended consequences have had in my constituency. The common thread is that the national insurance change hit the businesses for which labour is the highest cost hardest, putting services that my constituents rely on every day at risk. A fifth of everyone who works in Gosport works in caring, leisure and other service occupations. Those are by far the biggest employment sectors, and account for almost three times the average for England, so my constituents felt the Chancellor’s national insurance rises the hardest.