Baroness Sherlock (Lab)

My Lords, I thank the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, for introducing Amendment 217, which would require the Secretary of State to produce and publish a review of public service pension schemes, focusing on different aspects of the cost, affordability and accounting treatment of these schemes. I remind the Grand Committee that I am a member of the parliamentary pension scheme, and therefore of my appreciation of the work of the noble Viscount, Lord Thurso. The noble Baroness is quite right to focus on the affordability of these schemes and what this means for intergenerational fairness, given that unfunded public service pension schemes pay out over £60 billion in pensions and lump sums each year and are often the single largest liability in the whole of government accounts. However, as has been indicated already, and as the noble Baroness will know only too well, her party conducted a major review during the coalition Government, in the form of my noble friend Lord Hutton’s Independent Public Service Pensions Commission. That led to major reforms, including the new schemes to which all active members of the main schemes are contributing today, with a move from final salary to career average design, higher pension ages and higher member contribution rates. Due to the McCloud judgment and the resulting choice exercise for affected members, those members may have been building up only since April 2022, meaning that these major reforms are only now fully bedding in for all members. As my noble friend Lord Davies noted, the then Government committed to the 25-year guarantee, in effect committing to no further major reforms to public service pension schemes until 2040. The proposed review would be conducted by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions. However, I note that statutory public service pension schemes are the responsibility of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and I know that the Treasury works closely with the OBR and the NAO on this policy area already. The centrality of the questions that the amendment would require the review to consider means that much of this information is regularly published already. For example, the OBR publishes a forecast of the cash-flow cost of public service pensions over the coming years as part of its forecast at every fiscal event, including spending on pensions and lump sums, income from pension contributions and the net balancing payment to or from the Exchequer. The OBR also publishes long-term projections of spending on public service pension schemes as a share of GDP as part of its fiscal risk and sustainability reports. As noted, the most recent forecast from September 2024 projects that spending will decline from 1.9% of GDP to 1.4% of GDP over the next 50 years. Demographic changes as a result of longevity or migration are taken into account in the OBR’s long-term analysis. The sensitivity of scheme liabilities to longevity is central to the four-yearly valuation reports used to set employer contribution rates across schemes. Both the valuation reports and the whole of government accounts contain detail on different accounting treatments of scheme liabilities and how to interpret the resulting headline figures. Given that all this information is regularly published already, and the reforms to public service pension schemes that have already been implemented, a government review into the affordability of these schemes would merely collate existing information in one place. Let me address some of the specific questions that were raised, turning first to the treatment of pensions and the whole of government accounts. In recent years, liability has decreased significantly, falling from £2.6 trillion in 2021-22 to £1.4 trillion in 2022-23 and £1.3 trillion in 2023-24. The whole of government accounts report is fully transparent in explaining that these changes were driven by an increase in the applicable discount rate rather than changes in the amount of pension being accrued by scheme members. The whole of government accounts reports present this liability in accordance with the international financial reporting standards. There are no plans to change that approach and nor do we think there should be. However, I am aware that members of the PAC have asked whether this liability could be presented on a more permanent basis, to show how it would change in the absence of changes to the discount rate, to aid user understanding. The Treasury is currently exploring options to present pension liabilities on a constant basis. To be clear, any such presentation would be purely supplementary and would not affect the underlying pension liability calculations or the way those are presented in the financial statements. The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, asked why the Government are funding the gap permanently. The answer is that current contributions reflect the cost of current employment—pensions to be paid in the future. Current contributions are not intended to be and do not relate to current pensions in payment, which were earned years or indeed decades ago. So current pension costs reflect pensions earned. This is therefore not an appropriate basis to consider affordability. Traditionally, the central measure for Governments has been pensions as a proportion of GDP. On whether it is right to be paying these kinds of pensions, I am very grateful to the noble Viscount, Lord Thurso, for his stirring defence. It is really important to recognise that, sometimes, this is discussed as though all public sector employees are calling in huge salaries and doing little for them. He defended how so many people in the public sector are driven by vocation and a calling into public service: they do things to serve and often have lower salaries than they might have elsewhere. I pay tribute to all those who are in that position. It is true that, compared with the private sector, remuneration in the public sector is weighted towards pension. This is why public service pension schemes are so central to the Government’s fiscal forecasts. However, the noble Viscount is quite right: public sector remuneration has to be considered in the round, across pay and pensions. That is why pension provision is specifically taken into account as part of the pay review body process across the major public service workforces. It is also important to distinguish between the generosity and cost of the schemes and their DB design. My noble friend Lord Hutton noted in his review for the coalition Government that they are a large employer capable of bearing the risks inherent in a DB design. It is thus in a different position from other employers. In a sense, cutting public service remuneration, whether from pay or pensions, would allow any Government to score savings for the Exchequer, but the fact is that reward packages for each public sector workforce have to be designed to maintain the required levels of staffing and to deliver the required public services. Finally, it is worth remembering that the changes made following the Hutton review were significant. As I said, the scheme design changed from final salary to career average; pension ages were increased to state pension age for most schemes and to 60 for the police, firefighters and the Armed Forces; member contribution rates were increased across schemes, except for non-contributory Armed Forces schemes; and other aspects of scheme design were modernised, for example, in supporting flexible retirement. At the time, it was estimated that those reforms would save £400 billion over 50 years. Separately from the Hutton reforms, the then Government also switched the indexation of the scheme from RPI to CPI, in line with other forms of spending. This has been a very interesting debate but, as I have said, most of the information that has been sought in the review is out there already, so such a review is not currently worth while. I hope the noble Baroness can withdraw her amendment.