Lord Wolfson of Tredegar (Con)

My Lords, the exodus that we have just seen was about as chaotic as the Government’s plans that we are about to debate. However, I thank the Minister for providing us with the opportunity to ask questions. This latest Statement represents the fifth early release scheme that has been announced since the Prime Minister took office less than two months ago. With every new announcement, victims have been left in doubt as to which criminals will be released early. I hope that the Government recognise the impact that their lack of direction will have caused. The Minister in the other place set out that the amended early release scheme will operate for the foreseeable future, as the Sentencing Act 2026 is the basis on which standard determinate sentences will be governed. However, given that the Act, as passed by Parliament, did not exclude any of the exemptions that were announced last week, I hope that the Minister will understand why questions remain. It is right that those convicted of the crimes set out by the Justice Secretary are exempt from the early release scheme. If noble Lords cast their minds back to January, when the House debated the Report stage of this very Act, they may remember an amendment tabled by my noble and learned friend Lord Keen of Elie that would have achieved a very similar outcome. That amendment would have excluded a number of dangerous criminals—those serving time for some of the most serious offences—from early release. However, the Government resisted our Conservative amendment and prevented it going into the Act. The Government were warned that the Act would reduce the time spent in prison for more than 60% of rapists and more than 80% of child sex offenders. Now, nine months later, the Government have belatedly accepted the problems with their early release scheme. Why has it taken them so long to acknowledge the warnings from my noble and learned friend? What has changed in their assessment of available prison spaces between January and September that they can now include these exemptions when they resisted them earlier this year? There is a further important point, which I ask the Minister to consider very carefully. The statutory instrument that establishes the early exemptions says: “The provisions listed in regulation 2 do not come into force in relation to a sentence for an offence listed in the Schedule to these Regulations”. In other words, it is a commencement issue; it stops it coming into force. The Sentencing Act 2026 has a commencement provision. The Secretary of State has the power to commence the early release scheme on different days for different purposes. You can have a postponed commencement for offences that are subject to the early release scheme under the 2026 Act, but you can have only a postponed commencement; you cannot have no commencement. As the Minister knows, there is case law to the effect that a permanent failure to commence the early release scheme in full would be beyond the powers of the Secretary of State because it would frustrate the will of Parliament in passing the legislation in the first place. So there is a real conflict here between government comms and government policy. Government comms are telling the media that the exempted serious offenders will remain behind bars, full stop. The mechanism that Ministers are using appears to be only temporary. Can the Minister resolve that conflict by confirming to us today that the carve-out in these regulations is, in fact, only a temporary carve-out? Will the Government therefore bring forward substantive amendments to the 2026 Act? If so, when? If he cannot confirm that today, will the Minister recognise and confirm that he has at least taken into account the real risk that this statutory instrument will be successfully overturned, following judicial review? I turn now to IPP sentences. I acknowledge that 99% of IPP prisoners have served longer than their original tariff. Equally, of course, those prisoners were given those sentences due to the risk that they posed, so we have to consider public safety. The Minister in the other place outlined that the Government will introduce legislation on this matter. Is the Minister able to help us on whether that will be primary or secondary legislation? Is there a more specific date for its introduction than “soon”, which is one of those rather elastic words when used by Government Ministers for legislation? I ask the Minister to outline, if he can, what safeguards will remain in place to ensure that prisoners still considered too dangerous to be released are not released and that any risk to victims is, of course, taken properly into consideration. The Minister in the other place did not share a particular target or timeline by which the Government expect to deport foreign national prisoners or to answer the question of how the Government intend to overcome the barriers posed by, in particular, Articles 2 and 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights. Will the Minister set out the Government’s plans for how they will address those barriers and provide either a date by which they expect to remove all foreign national prisoners or a target number of how many they intend to remove by the end of this year? These are pressing issues; I hope that the Minister will be able to address them. I have one final, short point. Arising from the Statement, the Government have pledged a prison-building programme that will, we are told, create 14,000 new prison places by 2031—but the problem is now. There are currently 4,000 operational prison places not in use for reasons ranging from regulations to officer shortages. What steps are the Government taking to utilise those spaces? These matters are all of serious concern to victims. As I say, the Government have now made five different announcements on the early release scheme. I hope for clarity’s sake—and, perhaps, for the Minister’s sake as well—that this is going to be the last one. I look forward to the Minister’s responses to my questions.