Baroness Murphy (CB)

My Lords, as the noble Earl, Lord Howe, has mentioned, we will be talking about risk factors in the next group but one, and I will not go into the statistics and predictions at this point. As has been pointed out, Clause 4 implies that specific risk factors for detention under Part II are readily identifiable and assessed, but as we will see, predicting episodes of violent behaviour or self-harm is peculiarly difficult to do. The clause suggests that it is not clinicians who will be doing these risk assessments but that the Secretary of State will somehow have some expertise from ICBs in how to do this. Apart from the rather obvious wisdom that the best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour, I am not sure how these regulations can be drawn up. I am anxious about the common prejudices around, for example, black patients of African Caribbean descent living in London, who have a higher risk of being detained under Part II than white patients, or Asians of an Indian subcontinent background. Who will draw up this list to say which of these items is going to lead to the risk of detention under Part II? There have always been opportunities for the Secretary of State to intervene in the detention of patients under Part III of the Act, and some Secretaries of State have been more risk averse than others. I suspect that under this clause we will find some Secretaries of State taking a more hard-line view about who should and should not be detained. That gives cause for enormous anxiety, so I would like to know how the Government intend to devise these regulations to document specific risk factors.